Holding parliamentary elections in Armenian Republic in second April 2017 is considered as the first important political change in Caucasia region at the beginning of the new year. A very important point that is worth mentioning before dealing with the aforementioned subject is that these elections are held in the framework of Armenia’s new political structure. In December 2015 a referendum was conducted in Armenia that due to it after 25 years, the political structure of the country changed from presidency mode (centrality of president) to parliamentary mode (pivotal role of prime minister). As a result, from the beginning of 2018 the status of presidency in Armenia will become purely ceremonial and the main power and executive powers will be in the hands of the prime minister. Therefore, since the recent parliamentary election in Armenia was considered the first election after the change of political structure in the country, it was crucially important. The national parliament of Armenia that will begin its activity from the outset of 2018, will choose the future prime minister who is in fact at the top of the political pyramid of Armenia.
According to the results of Armenia’s recent parliamentary election, the way is actually paved for Serzh Sargsyan’s continuance in power as the prime minister from January of 2018 and Sargsyan who has had the power in his hands as the president for two successive periods since 2008, will be able to continue his dominance in political and executive power of Armenia as the prime minister from 2018 to 2022 (the time of holding the next parliamentary elections). If Serzh Sargsyan were elected as the future prime minister of Armenia from January 2018-which almost seems certain- it would be for the first time in Armenia that after its independence one person would be able to continue his dominance in political and executive power after two presidency terms: terms and conditions that were not repeated for former presidents i.e. Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharyan. Accordingly, after 2018, the intensification of issues and confrontations between political opponent forces and Serzh Sargsyan will be highly probable.
The foreign consequences of intensification of political conflicts and tensions in Armenia after the beginning of Sargsyan’s prime ministry in January 2018 will be the increasing dependency of Armenia’s government to Russia for bringing political stability in the country and especially obtaining financial and economic aids with the aim of improving the well-being and livelihood of Armenia’s society which in turn consolidates Russia’s traditional status in Armenia.
Moreover, the probable beginning of prime ministry of Serzh Sargsyan in Armenia in January 2018 will coincide with the probable election of Ilham Aliyev for the fourth successive term as the president of Azerbaijan in October 2018 elections and this issue besides increasing internal conflicts and disagreements between opponent political forces and the governments of Sargsyan and Aliyev, will also increase the probability of expanding the level of tension and fight in Karabakh (Gharabagh) region.