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 Strategic Indices: Combined Futuristic Index of Iranian Economy in 1387 (2008-9) (Based on information related to the first nine months of 1386 (2007-08)) |
May 2008
Dr Roya Tabatabaei Yazdi / Fredrik Malek / Behzad Mahmoudi
Department of Economic Research/ Indexing and Future Studies Research Group
Economic
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Abstract
Combined futuristic index is used on a monthly basis for short-term projection of overall economic situation by combining six futuristic indicators, namely, liquidity at constant prices, oil price, stock price index, construction permits issued to build houses, consumer expectations index and the number of the unemployed (reverse). This index and its six-month changes provide early information on return points for overall economic activity (periods of prosperity and recession). The methodology is based on standard method used by OECD member countries.
Relying on calculations in the third part of this paper, economic growth for 1387 (2008-9) has been projected to be lower than 1386 at about 6 percent.
Review of previous forecasts proves that using combined futuristic index is a reliable method for short-term prediction of overall economic activities.
Keywords: combined futuristic indicators, combined futuristic index, consumer expectations index, business cycles, prediction
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To read complete text of this policy paper on the Persian website click here.
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